Global shrimp production to hit 4.5 million tons by 2018

Although notoriously difficult to get hold of good, reliable information, James Anderson gave his annual update on the global shrimp market this morning.

 “This is timely data from the industry,” he said. “We hope we have the trend right, even if the numbers are not completely correct.”

 According to Anderson’s graphs shrimp production is likely to be around 4.1 million metric tons in 2016, up from just below 4 million in 2015 and gradually climbing to around 4.5 million metric tons in 2018.

 In response to higher prices, increased shrimp production in India, Vietnam, Ecuador and Mexico led to an overall increase in world production in 2014, but production fell again in 2015, he said.

 In the period from 2015 to 2018, though, the projected annual growth rate is expected to be 4.2 percent, said Anderson, “which is less optimistic than last year.”

 China, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia all reported lower production in 2015 relative to 2014, but on the other hand India and the Americas saw production climb, he said.

China’s production is shrinking, borne out by figures showing production of shrimp feed in the country, which declined 15 percent between 2012-2014 to around 1.4 million metric tons.

Meanwhile, shrimp exports from China were also down 37 percent from 2011-2015, predominantly due to an increased domestic consumption, said Anderson.

 In last the decade between 2005-2015, domestic consumption in China more than doubled by 123 percent from around 750,000 metric tons to 1.7 million metric tons, he said, while consumption has climbed 60 percent since 2010.

Both China and Thailand expect to make a partial recovery in shrimp production by 2018, said Anderson, but Thailand has now moved from second to fifth place in the Asia region.

 Malaysia has also been heavily impacted by disease, but a partial recovery is expected by 2018, while strong growth is also expected in Bangladesh.

 “The most dramatic growth is expected in Ecuador, reaching nearly 500,000 metric tons by 2018,” said Anderson, adding that maybe “this is a bit too bullish, and I’m probably off by 60,000 metric tons or so.

Global shrimp production to hit 4.5 million tons by 2018

Although notoriously difficult to get hold of good, reliable information, James Anderson gave his annual update on the global shrimp market this morning.

 “This is timely data from the industry,” he said. “We hope we have the trend right, even if the numbers are not completely correct.”

 According to Anderson’s graphs shrimp production is likely to be around 4.1 million metric tons in 2016, up from just below 4 million in 2015 and gradually climbing to around 4.5 million metric tons in 2018.

 In response to higher prices, increased shrimp production in India, Vietnam, Ecuador and Mexico led to an overall increase in world production in 2014, but production fell again in 2015, he said.

 In the period from 2015 to 2018, though, the projected annual growth rate is expected to be 4.2 percent, said Anderson, “which is less optimistic than last year.”

 China, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia all reported lower production in 2015 relative to 2014, but on the other hand India and the Americas saw production climb, he said.

China’s production is shrinking, borne out by figures showing production of shrimp feed in the country, which declined 15 percent between 2012-2014 to around 1.4 million metric tons.

Meanwhile, shrimp exports from China were also down 37 percent from 2011-2015, predominantly due to an increased domestic consumption, said Anderson.

 In last the decade between 2005-2015, domestic consumption in China more than doubled by 123 percent from around 750,000 metric tons to 1.7 million metric tons, he said, while consumption has climbed 60 percent since 2010.

Both China and Thailand expect to make a partial recovery in shrimp production by 2018, said Anderson, but Thailand has now moved from second to fifth place in the Asia region.

 Malaysia has also been heavily impacted by disease, but a partial recovery is expected by 2018, while strong growth is also expected in Bangladesh.

 “The most dramatic growth is expected in Ecuador, reaching nearly 500,000 metric tons by 2018,” said Anderson, adding that maybe “this is a bit too bullish, and I’m probably off by 60,000 metric tons or so.

Tilapia production expected to climb 4.5% in 2017

Tilapia production expected to climb 4.5% in 2017

Global tilapia production will reach around 5.5 million metric tons this year, up from 5.3 million last year, but is predicted to increase a further 4.5 percent in 2017 hitting 5.8 million metric tons, according to Ragnar Tveteras, business economist at University of Stavanger.

China is still the leading producer of tilapia with around 1.7 million metric tons, followed by Indonesia with just over 1 million and then Egypt with 665,300 metric tons on average.

Pangasius production, meanwhile, also continues to climb, and Vietnam still represents more than 50 percent of production.

Production of pangasius from the major producing countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam is expected to reach around 2.2 million metric tons in 2016 but climb to more than 2.5 million from these countries in 2018.

Of these countries, Indian production will see the most growth, increasing from around 447,500 metric tons this year to around 640,000 metric tons in 2018 -- up 43 percent.

Total production of catfish species, including pangasius, is expected to reach nearly 4.9 million metric tons in 2018, up from 4.4 million this year, said Tveteras.

"Post-EMS future is bright" - GOAL 2016

"Post-EMS future is bright"  - GOAL 2016 

 Although EMS is complicated “finally we are beginning to understand it,” and the future is bright, according to Robins Mcintosh, senior vice president at Charoen Pokphand Group.

 “The future is bright, we understand the disease now, and Thailand is already demonstrating it,” he said. 

Since the disease decimated the industry, many lessons have been learnt, Robins said, and once implemented these changes can result in success. 

For example, the process starts in the hatchery with healthy post larvae, he said. “Without healthy post larvae, genetics don’t mean very much.” 

Once it is understood starts in the hatchery and there is a need for high quality PLs, then there is also the need for completely new biosecurity implementation in order to get success.

 As an example, the industry needs to focus on ensuring clean brood stock, clean PLs, a clean farm, and a clean water source. 

Mcintosh also championed the use of a “Shrimp Pond Toilet” which can be used to quickly flush sludge, old feed and molts from pond.

 In addition, by changing the layout of CP’s Lamae farm, for example, the company has seen significant benefits, Mcintosh said. 

The company has boosted the number of primary treatment ponds at the site, as well as reservoirs, while also significantly decreasing the number of culture ponds. “And with change; today’s farm has greater profits than before AHPNS,” said Mcintosh. The company reduced the number of culture ponds from 77 to 38 and between 2014 and 2016 saw costs per kilo fall from $13.90 to $3.25 per kilo. 

Profits also jumped (see below). “Next time we are faced with a disaster, recovery will be quicker, now we will have the tools in place to respond,” said Mcintosh