Although notoriously difficult to
get hold of good, reliable information, James Anderson gave his annual update
on the global shrimp market this morning.
“This is timely data from the industry,” he
said. “We hope we have the trend right, even if the numbers are not completely
correct.”
According to Anderson’s graphs shrimp
production is likely to be around 4.1 million metric tons in 2016, up from just
below 4 million in 2015 and gradually climbing to around 4.5 million metric
tons in 2018.
In response to higher
prices, increased shrimp production in India, Vietnam, Ecuador and Mexico led
to an overall increase in world production in 2014, but production fell again
in 2015, he said.
In the period from
2015 to 2018, though, the projected annual growth rate is expected to be 4.2
percent, said Anderson, “which is less optimistic than last year.”
China, Thailand,
Vietnam and Indonesia all reported lower production in 2015 relative to 2014,
but on the other hand India and the Americas saw production climb, he said.
China’s production is shrinking, borne out by figures
showing production of shrimp feed in the country, which declined 15 percent
between 2012-2014 to around 1.4 million metric tons.
Meanwhile, shrimp exports from China were also down 37
percent from 2011-2015, predominantly due to an increased domestic consumption,
said Anderson.
In last the decade
between 2005-2015, domestic consumption in China more than doubled by 123
percent from around 750,000 metric tons to 1.7 million metric tons, he said,
while consumption has climbed 60 percent since 2010.
Both China and Thailand expect to make a partial recovery in
shrimp production by 2018, said Anderson, but Thailand has now moved from
second to fifth place in the Asia region.
Malaysia has also
been heavily impacted by disease, but a partial recovery is expected by 2018,
while strong growth is also expected in Bangladesh.
“The most dramatic
growth is expected in Ecuador, reaching nearly 500,000 metric tons by 2018,”
said Anderson, adding that maybe “this is a bit too bullish, and I’m probably
off by 60,000 metric tons or so.
